Today
Worried about rising rates? Top forecasters say RBA may well be done
After the year kicked off with a rise in Australia, top experts have shared their views on where to next for one of the world’s most hawkish central banks.
Yesterday
US inflation eases, traders lift odds of third rate cut
The American consumer price index rose 0.2 per cent in January, the smallest gain since July and restrained by lower energy costs.
Surging demand has helped Australia’s bond market finally come of age
A jump in issuance is great news for Australian investors and the federal government. But it has not always been this way.
This Month
US rates seen on ‘a long pause’ after January jobs data
The probability of a quarter point rate cut in June fell after the US economy added far more new jobs than expected last month, easing pressure on policymakers.
Matcha inflation is a thing, and it’s getting in the RBA’s way
Gen Zs are back and represent a part of the economy that is not significantly affected by higher rates. So what does this mean for the RBA’s battle to get inflation under control?
RBA chief tempers rate rise bets as yields, $A jump
Bond traders imply a strong chance of a follow-up rate rise by May after the RBA increased its inflation forecasts. Investors say there is “no way” the hikes are over.
January
Trump demanded a Fed dove. He picked a hawk
While Trump pledged to pick someone who would usher in easier monetary policy, Warsh has been regarded as a hawk since his time at the Fed ended in 2011.
Economists fret that reading the RBA is becoming harder, not easier
The central bank has worked hard to communicate more frequently with the market. Yet forecasters are having a difficult time pinning down where rates will go.
Surging Australian dollar set to keep rising as rate increases near
A weaker greenback had pushed the local currency to its highest in three years before hotter-than-expected inflation pointed to the RBA lifting rates next month.
Rate hike expectations send Australian dollar soaring
With traders increasingly confident that the RBA will increase the cash rate, the local currency hit multi-month highs against the US dollar and Japanese yen.
The RBA is primed for an embarrassing backflip
The Reserve Bank of Australia is heading towards being the first central bank in the world to raise rates following a post-pandemic easing cycle.
Aussie dollar storms to a 16-month high on rate hike bets
The local currency climbed above US68¢ following a blowout jobs report that analysts says could seal the case for the first interest rate increase in Australia in two years.
The US market exodus could only just be starting, strategists warn
Analysts warn of higher market turbulence after Donald Trump flagged punitive taxes on European goods as the battle over the future of Greenland escalated.
Macquarie Capital issues SRT tied to $1.4b of private loans
The investment and capital markets arm of Macquarie Group ventured into the significant risk transfer market with a transaction tied to high-yield corporate loans.
Trump is attacking the Fed, yet markets are remarkably calm (for now)
“Don’t fight the Fed” has been one of the most reliable mantras in modern markets, until this year. That rule needs to be replaced or at least amended.
Fed’s Miran wants 150 points of rate cuts to boost jobs
The Fed governor said underlying inflation is likely running at 2.3 per cent, which means Fed officials have room to cut further.
House prices tipped to climb, defying looming rate rises
A survey of 20 economists by The Australian Financial Review suggests the property market will rise 6 per cent this year as the population surges.
Rapid, repeated interest rate rises coming this year, economists say
Almost half of the 38 experts surveyed in the Financial Review’s first quarterly poll for 2026 reckon the next move is up, and some think it will not stop there.
December 2025
Buckle up: the RBA is set to lead the world on rate rises
It’s not just Australia where markets are starting to aggressively price in higher borrowing costs, but economists say they are getting ahead of themselves.
Citi touts February rate hike in a bold call for the RBA
The investment bank is the first major forecaster to tip two rate hikes in 2026, arguing that the RBA needs to act fast to get inflation under control, or risk losing credibility.
Time to rethink private markets as money flows back in
Big institutional investors are starting to re-assess their strategic asset allocations for 2026 after equities showed all the discipline of a late-night karaoke session.
Several RBA rate hikes on the way in 2026
RBA governor Michele Bullock has triggered a huge repricing of rate expectations. Financial markets are now fully priced for a cash rate increase by May next year.
Not so fast: bond investors say RBA rate cuts more likely
Markets imply the central bank will lift the cash rate twice next year, but several fund managers say traders have overreacted to recent data.
RBA rate hike bets jump amid global bond sell-off
The possibility of a rate increase in Japan has triggered a rout in bond markets around the world.
Aussie dollar stuck in low gear despite RBA rate hike talk
The Australian dollar is defying strategists’ expectations and behaving more like a tired commuter than a currency ready to rally.
